Trump Just Killed the US Film Industry

(And He Doesn’t Even Realise It)

Hollywood has never been cost effective. That is the dirty secret. The American industry does not make enough money to feed its own market. For decades, the big studios have relied on shooting abroad: Pinewood in the UK, tax credits in Canada, skilled crews in Hungary and Prague, orchestral recordings in London, VFX in Montreal or Mumbai. Without that patchwork, the numbers do not work.

Donald Trump’s new 100% tariff on “foreign” films is being sold as protection, a patriotic wall around American cinema. But let us be honest about what he means. He does not mean Parasite or Squid Game sneaking into US theatres. Foreign language films are a sideshow in America: they make up about 18% of theatrical releases but barely 1% of US box office revenue. The real target is Hollywood’s own supply chain. Films that look American on the marquee but are made in Britain, Canada, or Eastern Europe. Rogue One, shot almost entirely at Pinewood, would count as “foreign” under Trump’s definition.

And that is why this policy is so self destructive. If enforced, it will not save Hollywood. It will strangle it

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The immediate sting

In the short term, the UK and Europe will feel some pain. Projects in pre-production may be paused or cancelled as US studios scramble to work out what qualifies as “foreign.” Crews who expected months of work might suddenly find gaps in their diaries. Studio space that looked booked solid could sit empty.

But those cancellations do not mean more work for American crews. They mean fewer films. Because the studios cannot afford to keep everything in California. It is not ideological, it is arithmetic. 87% of US studio films already have significant elements produced outside the country. Pull those pieces out and the entire pipeline shrinks.

Less US content, not more

So what happens when you cannot make enough? America’s screens, already thinning out as streaming grows, risk running dry. Instead of strengthening Hollywood, tariffs would reduce its output. At the very moment audiences demand more content, Trump’s policy delivers less.

And then there are the foreign films Trump thinks he has locked out. Price them out of the US box office and distributors will not simply stop making them. They will go harder at the rest of the world. Already, over 70% of Hollywood’s own box office comes from international markets. If the US is hostile, producers will chase that revenue elsewhere.

The appetite is already there

Audiences are ready. Squid Game turned subtitled Korean drama into global water cooler TV. Alice in Borderland, House of Ninjas, Money Heist, RRR. All foreign, all global. The idea that Americans can shut themselves off from “foreign” stories feels quaint in 2025.

For UK audiences, foreign content is already mainstream. The more US distributors block films from their own cinemas, the more international distributors will lean into Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Trump is not protecting Hollywood, he is giving everyone else a head start.

Britain’s accidental jackpot

And here is where Britain stands to benefit. Yes, there will be some wobble at first. But long term, we are perfectly placed. Pinewood and Leavesden are world class, our crews are seasoned, and our tax reliefs are among the best globally. The UK offers 25% relief on qualifying spend, capped at 80% of core costs, which makes budgets up to 38% cheaper than the US once you run the numbers. Disney alone has banked £1.6 billion in UK tax credits over 15 years.

Add to that our ability to deliver English language content with global reach, and suddenly we look like a tariff proof haven. Hire American actors, base the shoot here, and finance internationally. By the time the film hits cinemas in 2027 or 2028, Trump will be gone, but the infrastructure we have built will remain.

Reciprocity: the elephant in the room

And what about the rest of the world? Trade does not happen in a vacuum. If America slaps 100% tariffs on foreign films, do not be surprised if Europe or Asia retaliate. Maybe not with films, but with other parts of the US media and entertainment ecosystem: streaming rights, licensing deals, advertising access. If the US says “no” to international films, the rest of the world could just as easily say “no” to American ones.

Hollywood’s great advantage has always been global distribution. Jeopardise that, and you weaken the very thing the industry depends on.

Theatres and streaming: two levers

Theatrical exhibition in America has always been stacked against foreign films. Imports may represent close to one in five releases, but they account for just 1% of box office takings. Now Trump wants to push even US studio tentpoles, made abroad but labelled “domestic,” into that same trap. Imagine Disney’s slate of UK shot Marvel films suddenly treated like French arthouse.

Streaming is the wild card. YouTube and Netflix do not respect borders the way customs officers do. Enforcement of tariffs on digital distribution will be a bureaucratic nightmare. Which means more foreign films may simply skip US theatres altogether and go straight to streaming, monetising globally and building fandoms without ever passing through a US multiplex. Another step away from Hollywood’s monopoly.

The end of the road…

In the short term, there will be pain. Productions cancelled, crews in limbo, financing tied in knots. But in the long run, Trump has not saved Hollywood. He has throttled it. By trying to force production back to US soil, he has created an impossible cost structure. By locking out “foreign” films, he has encouraged them to look elsewhere, and they will find plenty of eager audiences.

The outcome is clear: fewer US films, more international ones. Hollywood loses its stranglehold, and a new era of global content begins. Britain, with its infrastructure, language, and incentives, is perfectly placed to step into the gap.

Trump thinks he is protecting American cinema. What he has really done is hand the rest of us the keys to the future.

So the only question is: are we ready to use them?