There’s Trouble at Cupertino – Is Apple TV turning into Quibi?

Is the TV Industry Hooked on Unsustainable Economics?

There’s a kind of collective denial running through our industry right now.

I keep hearing this is just a rough patch, that budgets will bounce back. If we just hang on a bit longer, everything will return to normal. I’m sorry to say, I just don't think thats going to happen.

This state of play is the new normal, and it’s happening because I think most producers just dont think about the business of the business enough, they only think about the content they want to make.

But, before we get into that, let’s start with Apple because what’s happening there isn’t just about Silicon Valley - it’s about all of us. Apple has lost billions overnight thanks to the bonkers new tariffs introduced by Donald Trump and if history is any guide, when any company takes a financial hit, it starts looking really hard at what’s essential - and what’s expendable.

In my experience, when a broadcaster starts losing money, they stop all non essential operations and focus on core business. For channels that’s about providing content for the lowest cost possible. So basically, stop commissioning and start acquiring. A question I’m asking myself, is that what’s about to happen at Apple - and is it about to become the new Quibi?

It’s worth remembering: Apple is not a content company. It’s a hardware and software company. Content is a nice-to-have polish for the product, not the product itself. Their content spend might dodge the board’s bullet, because it’s the part of the business that’s so people facing, but also, when you’re haemorrhaging cash - something has to give.

And remember, Apple TV+ was already reportedly losing over $1 billion a year before these new tariffs came in. That kind of loss might be justifiable during a growth phase but not when the markets turn. Not when the stock price drops. Not when the board gets twitchy and definitely not when global trade gets weaponised by political theatre.

When the Ad Market Shrinks, the Pressure Shifts

It’s not just Apple feeling the pinch. Advertising revenue, already in long-term decline, is unlikely to bounce back in any meaningful way in this market climate. Advertising is another thing that gets shelved when you’re fighting for survival. On top of that linear is haemorrhaging viewers, digital is oversaturated and unpredictable and brands, quite sensibly, are becoming far more cautious about where they spend their money.

This means broadcasters and platforms are having to look elsewhere for stability. Smaller, micro subscriptions for IP offer one route, but they come with their own ceiling. So now everyone’s scrambling to explore other ways to make content pay - merchandise, live events, brand partnerships, IP exploitation. The problem? Most TV producers aren’t wired to think this way.

And why would they be? For years, producers never had to shoulder the financial risk. If a show didn’t land, it was “bad luck,” and they’d move on to the next one with a different commissioner.

But we’re entering a new world. One where risk and reward need to be shared. One where the deal structure isn’t just about delivery, but about durability and the most progressive broadcasters are already adjusting. They want partners who think commercially, who care about outcomes, and who are willing to play the long game.

The Quibi Lesson We Never Learned

If Apple is the superyacht taking on water, Quibi was the speedboat that exploded on launch.

Set up by Hollywood heavyweight Jeffrey Katzenberg and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, Quibi raised $1.75 billion. It had the best talent, the sleekest tech, and a confident pitch: short-form, high-end content for mobile. But within six months of officially launching in April 2020, it was gone.

They blamed bad timing because of Covid but that argument to me doesn’t really stack up. Lockdown was a boom time for media. The reality was their content didn’t land, and the business model didn’t make sense.

I met with them back in early 2020, when I was at Thunderbird. I saw it up close. The nervous energy. The lavish spend. The refusal to accept that you can’t just buy an audience. They ignored the golden rule - if people don’t care about what you’re making, if they’re not giving you their time or their money, then it doesn’t matter how many zeros are on your budget -you’ve already lost.

Content has to be good and cheap for it to make sense commercially.
And the industry, I feel, still hasn’t taken that lesson to heart.

We’re In the Reset Now

It might feel like the industry is collapsing and, in some ways, it is. You can hear it in the cautious phone calls. The last-minute cancellations. The projects “put on pause.” Indies are downsizing. Buyers are disappearing. Development money is evaporating.

But TV isn't going anywhere. It will survive. There will always be an audience for great storytelling and there will always be demand for content that brings people together. What we’re living through isn’t the end - it’s a huge reset, driven by two big forces.

First: market economics. Rising costs, falling ad revenue, global instability - none of that is going away. Second: a generational shift in media consumption. We’re no longer the only game in town. We’re competing with social platforms, YouTube, and gaming ecosystems that command just as much attention, if not more.

But here’s the thing: we’re still the very best at delivering a shared experience. That’s what TV does better than anything else. Whether it’s live sport, appointment drama, or next-day bingeing, nothing else scales culture in quite the same way.

So yes, the collapse is real. But so is the opportunity.
And the question is: what kind of industry do we want to rebuild?

Learning to Make More for Less

I think we’re heading toward the “content dumbbell” model I wrote about last month - where the market splits between ultra-premium blockbusters and lean, repeatable formats with global potential. Middle-budget shows will continue struggle and will die - because they can’t be monetised properly.

When I first wrote that argument, one producer wrote angrily that I was perpetuating the ‘myth’ of the “Fewer, Bigger, Better” mantra and that this was the cause for the collapse of the Industry. But that isn’t true - the Fewer Bigger Better strategy came about because the very content in the middle didn't make the channels any money.

But there is also a problem with this strategy. If Apple & Quibi can’t make super premium work what then?

Basically, as technology marches on, production costs will continue to drop. Super premium will eventually be replaced with the tariffs that we used to work with - £120-250k - but they will become much scarcer. Those shows will become the noisy tent poles. The mega shows with supersonic budgets will still exist, but they will be carried by multiple broadcasters - because as Quibi & Apple have shown, shouldering the cost for this alone just doesn't make sense - especially if they’re sitting on a platform that the vast majority doesn't have access too.

Ultimately, this mean producers need to think on which side of the business they are going to sit in. But for us, it will mean we all must learn how to make content for far smaller figures - without compromising on ambition or appeal. It means focusing on format, not frills. On ideas that travel. On teams that know how to deliver real value under pressure. Ideas that deliver VOLUME.

This isn’t about going cheap - it’s about being smart.

We need to rediscover how to build long-tail IP. How to make shows that generate revenue over time, across platforms, and in multiple forms because the “one-and-done” model can’t sustain an industry anymore.

And guess what, the most agile producers are already figuring this out. They’re ahead of the curve and quietly thriving.

So What Now?

If we want to survive what’s coming, we need to start acting like business partners - not just content suppliers. Here are my top 5 pieces of advice - but I’d love to hear your thoughts on any that I have missed:

• Building shared-risk, shared-reward models with buyers

• Thinking beyond the commission to long-term IP value

• Working with distributors who understand the international market

• Learning to operate with smaller budgets and longer tails

• And above all, developing the kind of strategic patience that our industry rarely rewards but increasingly demands

Because if we don’t adapt?
The model will adapt around us.
And by the time it does, it may be too late.